BCS and Big Ten Bowl Projections (prior to Championship Saturday)

Ok...so with my first blog I am going to tackle the impossible. I have been wracking my brain and throwing ideas off my friends trying to figure out how things are going to end up and where IU will go for their first bowl game since 1993. I will attempt to explain why I think certain teams will be where, but feel free to comment with your own opinions or questions. As we all know, the Big Ten has 7 bowl tie-ins with the Motor City, Champs Sports, Alamo, Insight, Outback, Capitol One, and presumably the Rose. As things currently stand within the BCS Rankings, Ohio State will represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. As you'll see, I'm not totally sold on that happening. Also, there are 10 BCS slots available for which the BCS bowl committees will choose their participants. They will choose from a pool of 14, or perhaps 18 if necessary, teams that make up the top 14-18 in the BCS Rankings. BCS rules state that a single conference can not send more than 2 teams to BCS bowls. Currently in the top 14 there are 4 SEC teams (Georgia, LSU, Florida, Tennessee), 3 Big 12 teams (Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma), 1 Big 10 team (Ohio State), 2 Pac-10 teams (USC, Arizona State), 2 ACC teams (Virginia Tech, Boston College), 1 Big East team (West Virginia), and 1 WAC team (Hawaii). Current teams 15-18 are Illinois, Clemson, Oregon and Wisconsin. To make things even more interesting, the majority of the teams in the top 14 still have 1 more game to play this weekend. Crucial matchups include Virginia Tech vs Boston College (ACC Championship), Tennessee vs LSU (SEC Championship), Missouri vs Oklahoma (Big 12 Championship), UCLA vs USC, Pittsburgh vs West Virginia, Arizona vs Arizona State, and Washington vs Hawaii. 10 of the top 14 teams in action and some key losses could affect the bowl situation for our Hoosiers. How so? Those oh-so-annoying Illinois Fighting Illini could still sneak in the back door to the Rose Bowl. Here is how I'm breaking it down based on my predictions for this weekend's games (perhaps more hopeful than realistic).

Oklahoma defeats Missouri for Big 12 Championship, knocking the Tigers out of the BCS Championship.

West Virginia routs Pitt in the Backyard Brawl, setting up a WVU blow-out of Ohio State in the national championship game.

Virginia Tech defeats Boston College (as they should of done in the regular season), knocking BC out of the top 14 in the BCS standings, and more importantly--below Illinois.

I see USC, Hawaii, and Arizona State all winning which keeps them all in the hunt.

LSU defeats Tennessee for the SEC Championship, dropping UT out of the BCS pool.

So, with these results I am projecting the following for the BCS bowls:

BCS Championship: West Virginia vs Ohio State


Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Hawaii


Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Georgia


Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Arizona State


Rose Bowl: Illinois vs USC


I know that one can find many faults with these projections, but like I said, these are more full of hopes for improving the Hoosier bowl situation. Assuming the games this Saturday go as I stated, we could still see Hawaii omitted in favor of Missouri or Kansas. Either of those Big 12 teams could also replace the Illini in the Rose Bowl. I sort of feel bad for Buckeye fans, as I fear that their matchup with WVU could be a 2nd straight embarrassment in the title game.

Now, assuming Illinois does sneak into the Rose Bowl, here is how I see the rest of the Big Ten bowls shaping up:

Capitol One Bowl: Michigan

Outback Bowl: Wisconsin (already accepted)

Alamo Bowl: Penn State

Champs Sports: Indiana

Insight: Michigan State

Motor City: Purdue

Las Vegas: Iowa (not enough Pac-10 teams to fill their tie-in)

If the Illinois situation doesn't work out in the BCS, each team moves down one on the tree and Iowa gets squeezed out of the picture. I for one would love to go to Florida for an IU bowl game, and I know that it may not be financially as feasible to fly out to Tempe for the Insight Bowl should we end up there. My preferences would rank in this order: Champs Sports, Las Vegas, Motor City, Insight...from a purely selfish perspective. I also think that the fact that the Insight Bowl is televised only on the NFL Network would hurt IU from the exposure standpoint. Hard to boost your program status if 60% of the country can't watch your bowl game on TV. So for the Hoosiers sake, and for that of many of the rest of us, I'd like us all to be rooting for Oklahoma, VaTech, UCLA, Washington, and Arizona this weekend. Here's to a warm holiday season for our Hoosiers!

Check back on Sunday for the official bowl schedule.